I found the old man in a far from brilliant condition, both in body and morale. He coughed and looked pale and sluggish. His outlook for the future lacked confidence and hope.

Despite the victories in Africa, Lloyd George’s prognosis for the war remains the same: he cannot see how England could defeat Germany. Stalemate, playing out a draw – yes, that’s possible and even probable. But victory? No, the old man still cannot discern the necessary preconditions for victory.

‘Well, if the Soviet Union entered the war on our side,’ exclaimed Lloyd George, ‘that would be a different matter! Then we really could beat Germany. But that is out of the question. What’s more, our government, even this government, has done everything in its power to alienate Russia. Sheer madness!’

The old man raised his hands in despair.

There was a call from the prime minister’s office while I was there: Churchill asked him to be at 10, Downing Street by 1 p.m. The old man was clearly agitated by the call.

Why did Churchill need to see Lloyd George? Does he want to appoint him ambassador to Washington?…

Lloyd George spoke with some contempt about Italy. In his opinion, Mussolini’s regime is beginning to crack. Mussolini will not be able to recover from his defeats on his own. Will Hitler help him? Lloyd George doubts it. First of all, how? By sending troops to Greece through Yugoslavia and Bulgaria? Or through Turkey to Egypt? That would be dangerous. It could trigger a quarrel between Hitler and the USSR. One also has to take into account Turkish resistance. Second, what for? Lloyd George has an idea: Hitler has been recently thinking about replacing Italy with France in his ‘Axis’. This is not impossible. Suppose Hitler says to Pétain: I shan’t claim French territories in Europe (except Alsace-Lorraine) and in Africa (except Togo and Cameroon), I shall repatriate 2 million French prisoners, I shall vacate the greater part of occupied France except for the Channel and Atlantic ports, which I need to fight against England, while in exchange you give me a base in Toulon and allow me to use what’s left of the French fleet. Could such a scheme not attract Pétain? Of course it could. Lloyd George interprets the fall of Laval and the appointment of Flandin precisely from this point of view: Laval was ‘pro-Italian’, while Flandin has always been ‘pro-German’. Italian stock is falling, while German shares are on the rise. Hence the change ‘on the throne’.

We’ll see if the old man is right.

I walked home through Kensington Gardens. It was damp and slightly foggy. The park was empty. On the shore of the little lake I observed an almost Biblical scene: a young bespectacled soldier in crumpled, filthy uniform was feeding the swans and gulls. He had a big bag under his arm from which he was taking the crumbs and throwing them to the birds. Three big swans climbed out of the water and, gracefully bending their necks, took the crumbs straight from the soldier’s palm. Hundreds of gulls surrounded the soldier, crying wildly and violently flapping their wings. They rushed about him as if possessed, plucked pieces of bread out of the air, and landed on his shoulders and arms, even on his head. And he, a puny, clumsy and pensive little soldier, peered through his spectacles with a certain surprise at this kingdom of birds, as if wishing to say: ‘Yes, man and nature are one.’