The ‘invasion’ failed. However, he does not see how this or that side might ‘win’. England and Germany operate in different elements: England does not have an army and Germany does not have a navy. It is like a fight between a shark and a tiger. How can one pin the other to the ground?

The situation would not change radically even if the United States were to enter the war. They would need at least three years to build an army of 3–4 million, to train it, arm it and send it to Europe. But even then, the joint Anglo-American army will number merely 8 million; what’s more, the German general staff will be a cut above its British counterpart. England can only crush Germany properly with the aid of the Soviet Union, but the preconditions for this are currently lacking.

Lloyd George believes it highly unlikely that the war will last another three years. He is inclined to think that a situation conducive to a compromise peace will evolve during the winter of 1941/42.