England will undoubtedly be able to repulse a German attack on its islands. But it will not be able to win back France, Denmark, Norway, Holland and Belgium from Germany. As a result, a situation might emerge whereby Germany, depending on the European continent it has conquered, will not be able to defeat England, while England, depending on its Empire and possibly part of the French Empire, will not be able to defeat Germany. A stalemate will ensue. The Soviet Union and the United States might act as mediators and achieve a decent peace in Europe.

I learned from C. [possibly Cot] the following details of Cripps’s conversation with S[talin] in the presence of M[olotov] on 1 July.

Cripps raised four issues on behalf of the British government:

(1) General policy. Germany has seized the greater part of Europe and is about to establish its supremacy in Europe. It is swallowing up one nation after another. This is dangerous for both England and the Soviet Union. Couldn’t the two countries establish a common line of defence to restore equilibrium in Europe?

S[talin]’s reply: The Soviet Union is following the development of the European situation with the keenest interest, as it is the key issues of international politics which should be resolved in Europe in the near future as a result of the hostilities. However, the S[oviet] G[overnment] does not see any danger in the hegemony of a single state in Europe, still less in Germany’s ambition to absorb other nations. Germany’s military successes present no threat to the achievements of the USSR or to the existence of cordial relations between the two said states. These cordial relations are based not on transient, opportunist considerations, but on the vital national interests of both states. As far as the restoration of ‘equilibrium’ in Europe is concerned, that ‘equilibrium’ was suffocating not only Germany, but the USSR as well. That is why the Soviet government will do all it can to ensure that the former ‘equilibrium’ is not restored.

(2) Trade. Regardless of whether or not a common Anglo-Soviet line of defence against Germany is formed, the British government would like to develop trade between the two countries. The only restriction England imposes is that commodities imported from England should not be re-exported to Germany.

S.’s reply: The Soviet Union does not object to trading with England, providing two conditions are met. First, Soviet–German trade relations are our own business and we shall not discuss them with England. Second, some of the nonferrous metals imported from abroad will be re-exported to Germany to meet some of our orders for war material there. If the British government does not accept these conditions, trade will not be possible.

(3) The Balkans. The British government believes that the Soviet Union should assume control of the Balkan countries in order to maintain the status quo in the Balkans.

S.’s reply: It is the opinion of the Soviet government that no single power can claim an exclusive role in the unification and control of the Balkans. The Soviet Union is certainly interested in the Balkans, but it does not claim an exclusive role in this part of the globe.

(4) The Straits. The British government is aware that the Soviet Union is dissatisfied with the situation in the Straits and the Black Sea. It believes that the interests of the Soviet Union in the Straits should be secured.

S.’s reply: The Soviet Union is against Turkey taking unilateral control of the Straits, just as it is against Turkey dictating conditions in the Black Sea. The Turkish government has been informed of the USSR’s attitude.