Such is the general backdrop. Upon it, some very significant patterns can be discerned.

The workers are more determined than anyone. Whether in the industrial north, or among the miners of South Wales, or the iron-workers of London, or the textile workers of Lancashire, the mood is the same: We shan’t let Hitler into our country! Down with Hitler! Down with fascism! This mood includes a broad range of variations among the workers: from the brutally jingoist slogan, ‘We’ll have no peace until we slaughter all the Germans’ (the most backward strata) to the newly emerging conception that ‘the war, which started out as an imperialist one, has changed against the will of its initiators into a just war of defence!’ (the most progressive strata, including a few communists). All anti-war speeches and talks have ceased. The communists, of course, take a rather specific position, but I’m speaking here about the broad working masses.

It is from this point of view that the masses assess people and actions: that which facilitates resistance is popular, that which prevents it is not. Morrison and Bevin are now very popular, as they have boosted military production and expunged the most insolent forms of capitalist influence in their departments. Churchill is popular because the masses see him as the only man who can ‘win the war’. In contrast, irritation and indignation against Chamberlain and Co. grow with every passing day. A few days ago, a meeting of 25,000 South Wales miners demanded that Chamberlain be tried for treason! Certain aircraft factories have also witnessed difficulties in connection with the extension of the working week to seven days. The workers said: We are ready to work seven days a week for the defence of the nation, but we don’t want to work seven days for this government (on the whole, however, the prolongation of the working day, etc. has met few obstacles). Opposition to Chamberlain is growing, and if Churchill does not relieve his Cabinet of this dangerous burden in time, the whole government may be put in jeopardy.

There is a clear split in the attitudes of the ruling classes. Churchill’s group stands for war to the end, for the sake of which it is ready to meet many of the workers’ demands in the sphere of domestic and economic policy. Chamberlain’s group, on the contrary, is scared stiff about the social and political consequences of the war and is ready to conclude a ‘rotten peace’ at any given moment, in order to retain its capitalist privileges. They produce a simple argument: better to be ‘rich’ in a small empire than ‘poor’ in a big one. This group has not given up hope of diverting Hitler to the east at some point in the war. Naturally, these people are keeping silent. Chamberlain even tries to play the ‘extremist’ in Cabinet in all that regards the conduct of the war. Nevertheless, Chamberlain’s group is a real ‘fifth column’. One detail is especially indicative. Chamberlain’s circles are now spreading the propaganda that it is not Chamberlain, but Baldwin who is to blame, since he pushed off the throne such a ‘good king’ as Edward VIII. Yet Edward was known as a fascistic Germanophile. Isn’t the ‘fifth column’ thinking of promoting Edward VIII to the role of British Führer when the moment is right? Time will tell.

So, war to the end. But what is the general strategic plan of the British government? Summing up the information available to me, I can venture the following.

The British government plans to remain on the defensive until about the end of this year: there are not enough men, arms and aircraft. By the beginning of 1941, the British government hopes to have overcome these difficulties, to gain superiority over the Germans in the air, and to move on to the offensive. Until then, England must be turned into an unassailable fortress, capable of repelling every German assault. In addition, it will carry out a rigorous naval blockade of Germany and Italy, which means, in the current situation, a blockade of all Europe. The French navy and French colonies are expected to play a major role in this.

At the root of this strategic plan lie fairly complicated motives. First, the shortage of men and arms, which the British government hopes to eliminate within the next six months with the help of the United States and the Empire. Secondly, an assumption that Germany will exhaust itself (especially in the spheres of oil, war resources, food, etc.). Thirdly, the hope that the international situation will change in favour of England. This envisages, first, the entry of the United States into the war and, secondly, if not the direct participation of the Soviet Union in the war then at least the worsening of its relations with Germany. The latter is reckoned as highly probable, in the event, for instance, of Germany and Italy moving to the Balkans and the Near East ‘in search’ of Iranian and Iraqi oil.

How realistic is the British government’s strategic plan?

The answer to this question depends on the answers to two others. Is Germany capable of starving out England? And is Germany capable of carrying out a serious invasion of England?

The answer to the first question is negative. First, England herself produces up to 50% of the food products she needs. Second, British tonnage amounted to 21 million tons before the war. About 1 million was lost in the course of the war, but was then recovered through the construction of new ships and the seizure of German and Italian vessels. Up to 7 million Dutch, Norwegian and Danish tons have also fallen into England’s hands. So the total tonnage at England’s disposal amounts to the massive figure of 28 million tons. Even if England loses 2–3 million tons in the next few months as a result of the intensification of the war, this will not be of decisive importance. The Germans, of course, will attack the ports as well. But even if they destroy half the ports, the other half, working day and night (the ports currently work only by day) will still be able to process the cargoes required by the country. All this means that England may have significant difficulties in supplying food and raw materials in the new phase of the war, but it cannot be starved out.

What about an invasion?

Very energetic measures are being taken to repel an invasion. There are 1.25 million troops inside the country (including the best units), and more than 1 million are undergoing training. The eastern and southern coasts have been fortified with artillery batteries, machine-gun nests, etc. Large forces have been concentrated in the coastal areas. Special mechanized units have already been organized, and more will be created. They are stationed at strategically important points and can easily be deployed in any direction. Detachments, anti-aircraft batteries and fighter squadrons have been positioned in the most crucial locations all over the country. Signs and directions have been removed from all roads, and barricades, bastions, fortifications and so on are being constructed. Airfields have been mined and are guarded by strong units. All potential landing sites are being rendered unsuitable for planes. A Local Defence Volunteers corps, numbering close to 500,000, has been set up (admittedly, not all have weapons yet). German and Italian residents are being interned, and some are even being sent to Canada. Some repressive measures have also been taken against British fascists (Mosley

Sir Oswald Mosley, founder in 1932 of the British Union of Fascists and its leader.

and others have been arrested). The greater part of the navy is in home waters. The air force is ready to rebuff an invasion. Negotiations are being conducted with Ireland about stationing Canadian and Australian troops there (but not English troops, so as not to irritate the Irish); apparently, they are going well.

Is all that enough to prevent an invasion? On paper it looks sufficient. When you start counting England’s defensive advantages, you see that the British are holding a full hand of cards. But will they know how to play them? I don’t know. The current war has already brought so many surprises, the Germans have displayed so much skill and invention, and the Allies such helplessness and unpreparedness, that I wouldn’t vouch for anything at the present time.

Time will tell.