The German breakthrough was carried out by 22 divisions, of which 12 were mechanized and 10 motorized. The breakthrough was a bolt from the blue for Gamelin and his staff. First, they thought the Germans had 5–6 mechanized divisions. Secondly, they were convinced that the Ardennes were impassable. That is why there was no second, never mind third, line of defence at the Sedan front. That is why 250,000 of the best French troops had been withdrawn from there and transferred to Belgium without adequate replacement. That is why second-rate troops were stationed in this section when the Germans advanced, while the major reserves were concentrated along the Italian border and the Maginot Line. As a result, the German mechanized units, having broken through, moved on toward the Channel like tourists, meeting no resistance and even fuelling their tanks from French petrol pumps.

The German breakthrough is still relatively narrow (no more than 100 km at the base and much narrower at the head) and has not been consolidated by massed infantry. The breach can be sealed off rather easily, if the Anglo-French forces act quickly. Up to 800,000 Allied troops are stationed north of the breakthrough (about 250,000 British, up to 200,000 French, and more than 400,000 Belgian). The major forces of the French are located southward. Weygand is said to be preparing a crushing blow against the Germans in the next few days.

But will the Allies act quickly and decisively? I don’t know. I cannot be certain.

My general impression is that if England and France hold out for 1–2 months, they may avoid defeat and possibly score a moderate victory in the long run. But will they hold out? I don’t know. I cannot be certain about that either.