The meaning of Beaverbrook’s words is clear. Over the last couple of months the general consensus in England has been that the USSR is an ‘ally of Germany’. Even Butler has expressed such fears. In the past few weeks, the press has kicked up a lot of fuss about a ‘tripartite totalitarian bloc’ (Germany, Italy and the USSR) on the Balkan question. The ‘Allied’ countries have interpreted C[omrade] Molotov’s speech in the following way: no ‘alliance’ exists between Moscow and Berlin; the USSR maintains its independent policy, and this independent policy is neutrality. What could be better?… The nightmare oppressing the souls of London and Paris is no more.

There are, however, sceptics. Some say: ‘Neutrality… hmm… What sort of neutrality? There are many sorts of neutrality.’

These people think it better to wait and see than to start clashing cymbals.

Nonetheless, the fundamental response of public opinion is in our favour. Labour, the Liberals, Beaverbrook, Garvin, Layton – all affirm that the new opportunity should be taken to improve relations with Moscow and forestall the possibility of Moscow ‘sliding’ towards Germany.

First of all, Belgrade has finally decided, according to Subbotić, to restore relations with the Soviet Union. The first step will be taken via either London or Ankara. Not only is the government in favour, but also Prince Paul and Maček

Vladko Maček, leader of the Croatian Peasant Party in Yugoslavia, 1928–41; deputy prime minister, 1939–41.

(leader of the Croats). The reason for the change lies in the dangerous position of Yugoslavia and, in particular, in the suspicious behaviour of Italy. The Yugoslav government found out recently that the organizers of ‘communist demonstrations’ in various Dalmatian towns have connections with Rome. At the same time, Italian diplomats in Belgrade and other capitals have let it be known ‘semi-officially’ (but quite plainly) that Italy will not tolerate the emergence of ‘communism’ in the Adriatic. It all looks like trouble. Yugoslavia has had to reconsider its policy in a hurry and look for new sources of support on the international scene. Hence the idea of rapprochement with the USSR. In what form? The Yugoslav government would be prepared to restore diplomatic relations with the Soviet Union, but it is somewhat concerned about how Italy would react to such a step. That is why the Yugoslav government would rather start with a half-measure, the signing of a trade agreement, and then, at the first opportunity, arrange an exchange of envoys.

Second, the internal situation in Yugoslavia has become significantly more stable. The rapprochement between Serbs and Croats is working well. The Croats are unhappy about one issue – the timing of the parliamentary elections – but its significance will not prove especially great. All Yugoslavs, without exception, are united by one and the same passion: to avoid war! This desire is above all internal arguments and disagreements.

I questioned Subbotić about Yugoslavia’s relations with Germany and other states. He says that so far Germany has been behaving in an appropriate manner and carrying out the trade agreement with Yugoslavia to the letter, while the German minority in Yugoslavia has been keeping a low profile. Will this last? Who knows?

The economic role of Germany in Yugoslavia is enormous: 60% of Yugoslav foreign trade is with Germany, no more than 12% with France, and only 5% with England. The figures speak for themselves.

Subbotić says that rumours of a tripartite bloc aimed at the Balkans caused great anxiety in Belgrade, but C[omrade] Molotov’s speech has dispelled it. Now there is another priority: the improvement of relations between the USSR and Turkey.