Guo Taiqi visited me two days ago. He was terribly alarmed and upset. What was the matter? It turned out that some Brits (he swore they were not from the Foreign Office) had been persistently whispering in his ear over recent days that the USSR had changed its general political line, that one could not rely on the USSR any longer, and that sooner or later it would turn its back on China to seek an agreement with Japan. Proof of this was the Soviet Union’s ‘attack’ on Finland. Guo Taiqi had come to ask me if there were any grounds for these rumours. Naturally, I did my utmost to reassure him. At the end Guo Taiqi himself began reasoning ‘almost like a Marxist’ (as he put it). He constructed the following syllogism: ‘The policies of the USSR are guided entirely by its own interests. A strong China, capable of withstanding Japan, is a direct Soviet interest. Ergo, the USSR cannot leave China to the mercy of fate.’

Guo Taiqi left me with his mind at ease. On parting, he told me that he would do all he could at the League of Nations (where is going as second delegate) to ‘alleviate the situation’. I doubt he can do anything tangible as China’s situation in the League of Nations will be very delicate this time around, while Gu Weijun (the first delegate) is not a brave fellow and prefers to go AWOL in difficult situations. This has happened more than once in the past – on the Spanish question, for example.

Yesterday, Aras came over. A different circumstance concerns him. The German press and radio have been carrying out a major campaign in recent days to the effect that Berlin and Moscow have a secret agreement to bring about a radical realignment of forces in the world. It is alleged, in accordance with this agreement, that after finishing with Finland, the USSR will turn southward and advance to the Balkans, the Near East and India, and that Germany will give it the requisite support. Yesterday the Völkischer Beobachter openly called on the USSR to repeat the conquests of Alexander the Great. In Washington, the German chargé d’affaires gave an interview to the press (see Washington Times and Herald of 4 December) in which, appearing to speak on behalf not only of Germany, but also of the USSR, he stated that Bessarabia and control over the Straits would be the Soviet government’s next moves after Finland.

All these concoctions had worked Aras up into a state and he spent a long time arguing that Germany wants to ‘push’ the USSR into Asia, so as to deal a blow to Britain throughout the Near East and India with ‘Russian hands’, thereby alleviating Germany’s position and simplifying its tasks in Europe.

So, once again I had to do the job of reassuring, demonstrating to the Turkish ambassador the absurdity of Germany’s calculations – if such calculations actually exist in the minds of Hitler and Ribbentrop.

Aras told me in passing that in October and November he himself had advised Gripenberg

George Achates Gripenberg, Finnish envoy to Great Britain, 1933–41.

on several occasions to lean on the Finnish government and convince it to reach an agreement with the USSR.

‘I told him,’ Aras exclaimed, ‘that if the conflict comes to a head, you will be abandoned! Nobody will help you!’

Gripenberg, according to Aras, agreed entirely, but Helsinki, spurred on by Sweden and others, adhered to a different point of view. As for the British government, Aras says it behaved like Pontius Pilate: it dispensed no advice at all, simply telling the Finns to ‘decide for yourselves’. Somehow I find this difficult to believe.

On the whole, it seemed to me that on this occasion Aras had been sent to me by the FO. He told me that the previous day he had seen Butler, who was most unhappy at having to represent the British government in Geneva and who was going to adopt a ‘moderate line’ there. Before leaving, Aras asked me ‘between friends’ whether there was anything I wished him to pass on to Butler before he left. He was seeing Butler the next day. I said I had no such messages.

Yesterday I also had a visit from Subbotić, the Yugoslav ambassador. He was also alarmed, almost panicking. The German campaign plus Stefanov’s

Boris Stefanov, general secretary of the Rumanian Communist Party, 1936–40.

article in the recent issue of the Communist International (which makes it clear to Rumania that it had better conclude a mutual assistance pact with the USSR according to the example of the Baltic States, and which emphasizes the status of Rumania’s ‘minorities’, including Russians, in Bessarabia) have caused a commotion in the Balkans.

‘I fully understand your claims to Bessarabia,’ said Subbotić (even though I hadn’t said a word about Bessarabia). ‘In essence, the Rumanians understand them as well and would probably be prepared to make concessions. But how is this to be done? If Rumania were to agree to return Bessarabia to you, Hungary would immediately raise the question of Transylvania, and Bulgaria that of Dobrudja. What would be left of Rumania then?’

Be that as it may, Subbotić ‘understands’ that Bessarabia should be returned ‘to the bosom’ of the USSR. The question is how to do it.

If it is done ‘quietly’, ‘calmly’ and ‘gradually’, no one in the Balkans will even wince. If we decide to resolve the question abruptly and hastily (Subbotić didn’t say it, but he was probably thinking about the ‘Finnish model’), major complications may arise. Italy will interfere and occupy Saloniki and certain points in Yugoslavia. The Germans, not to be outdone, will follow suit. Turkey will not be able to keep out of it. Britain and France will come to the aid of Italy and Turkey. In short, a large war involving all the great European powers will break out. The Balkan peoples will be the first to suffer…

Subbotić’s conclusion could be formulated as follows: ‘Take Bessarabia, but do it on the sly, so as not to trigger a war in the Balkans.’

I once again had to allay the ambassador’s anxiety. I explained to him that we pursue a policy of peace and that while we care a great deal about strengthening our security, we seek to avoid unnecessary complications.

The NKID press department issued a statement today saying that Stefanov’s article does not reflect the point of view of the Soviet government. Excellent!