What Paish told me about Japan’s position was much more interesting. Her gold reserves are dwindling. They amounted to 800 million yen a year ago, 500 million as of 1 January 1939, and 300 million as of 1 May. By the end of 1939, only their memory will remain. Meanwhile, Japan has to import great quantities of iron, oil, cotton, etc. Considering the state of Japan’s industry, trade and finance, Paish believes that the Japanese economic system will collapse as early as spring 1940. That is why Japan must find a ‘solution’ to the Chinese war within the next 6–8 months by hook or by crook, or else she is done for.

Would that Paish’s calculations prove true! I’ve heard so many prophecies about an imminent crisis in Japan (as in Germany and Italy), all of which have proved wide of the mark, so I can’t help but be sceptical. Yet there must be a genuine breaking point somewhere. Are we not approaching it in Japan?