According to Nicolson, Eden is very uneasy about the following prospect: it is highly probable that in the next few months, especially if some kind of even temporary solution is found for the problem of Czechoslovakia, Hitler will propose ‘reconciliation’ between Britain and Germany on the basis of ‘western security’, an air pact, a willingness not to force the colonial issue, etc., but on condition that ‘Germany’s special political and economic interests in the Danube basin and in the BALKANS’ are recognized. Eden believes that acceptance of such an offer would mean the end of the British Empire. And he is afraid that the proposal would be a great temptation not just to Chamberlain, but to broad swathes of the Tory Party. At present Eden prefers not to speak on foreign-policy matters, but if the moment that he fears arrives, he will strain every sinew to ensure that such offers are rejected.

Eden is still very popular. The following curiosity is evidence of the fact. Not long ago, Eden and his wife went to Glasgow to see the Empire Exhibition. He was there as an ordinary tourist, but as soon as word of his presence spread around the pavilions, a huge crowd gathered to greet him with a thunderous ovation. Women in particular were in raptures. All cried: ‘When will you be back in office?’

Eden, according to Nicolson, said that before the signing of the Anglo-Italian pact, on 16 April, Mussolini assured Chamberlain that Franco would be in Barcelona no later than 1 May. Relying on this promise, the PM not only agreed to sign the pact but also ventured to make a promise to the opposition in parliament that the pact would not come into effect before the Italians were evacuated from Spain.

The prime minister’s calendar was approximately as follows: April – Franco’s victory, May – the withdrawal of at least part of the Italian troops from Spain, and June – ratification of the pact. He made a slight miscalculation: the Republicans proved much stronger than Mussolini and Chamberlain had thought, the USSR rendered timely assistance with arms and ammunition, and Franco is now farther from Barcelona than ever before. Eden concluded with a laugh: all his forecasts had come true to the letter, whereas Chamberlain suffers failures, mainly because he dislikes the USSR and tries to ignore it.