What were the differences between the ‘opposition’ and the ‘party’? As far as we know, the army was displeased with attempts at its ‘Nazification’; it took a critical view of the persecution of the Church, the four-year plan, the destruction of agriculture, the disregard for tradition, Italy and the notorious Axis, the alliance with Japan which threatens to sow conflict between Germany and the USSR and China, and the party’s failure or unwillingness to reach an actual agreement with Britain. In general, the army was a restraining factor in German policy: it opposed the occupation of the Rhineland, and it was very unenthusiastic about the Spanish adventure. The army believed that Germany was not ready for a big war and, for this reason, should not take excessive risks.

What can we expect now, after this crackdown on the military? Increasing aggressiveness in German policy (not for nothing has Ribbentrop been appointed foreign minister), the strengthening of the Axis and the anti-communist bloc and, as a result, the accelerated formation of two fronts, although the latter process may not be a linear one. More purposeful attempts to seize Austria and, perhaps, Czechoslovakia are also very probable, as are a more contentious approach to the issue of colonies and more active support for Japan in the Far East and Italy in Spain.

The events of 4 February have made a profound impression in England. Even the Daily Mail is somewhat taken aback and predicts further complications. It has affected not just the political world; the City, too, is ruffled. Yesterday the Reichsmark fell on the London Stock Exchange. But the English, as is their custom in difficult moments, try to conceal their concern. They invent all manner of consolations. In particular, they pin too much hope on the dispute between Rome and Berlin because of Austria. I have no doubt that the British government’s first response will be to expedite Anglo-German negotiations. Chamberlain and Co. will argue that the last chance must be taken to avoid a war. Oh, these eternal appeasers! Is there any end to their short-sightedness and cowardice?

It was not without reason that at a private meeting of City representatives a few days ago (before 4 February), Simon recommended that credits be granted to Germany, arguing that England had come to the point where it had to make a definite choice: either to go to war against Germany or to pay her off. Simon, of course, was in favour of a pay-off.

If Hitler manages not to behave like a bull in a china shop, and particularly if he says a few encouraging words in his speech on 20 February,

In his speech on 20 February, Hitler announced his intention of redressing the grievances of the German population in Austria and Czechoslovakia.

Chamberlain will be just dying to meet him halfway. The slow pace of the Anglo-German talks, which Vansittart recently spoke to me about, will then speed up and the outline of a four-power pact at the cost of Central, South-East and Eastern Europe will loom clearly on the horizon. It is also very likely that the British will try to give the Axis a tug at its Italian end – who knows what might come of it?